The Jeddah Showdown: Underdogs or Hidden Favorites? Barcelona’s Supercopa Stance Decoded

The script for this season’s Spanish Supercopa seemed pre-written. After a dominant October Clásico victory, Real Madrid under Xabi Alonso sat atop LaLiga, the narrative pendulum swinging firmly back to the Spanish capital. Yet, as the two giants prepare to clash in Jeddah’s King Abdullah Sports City this Sunday, a subtle but seismic shift has occurred. The question isn’t just who will win, but whether Barcelona, despite their recent supremacy, are secretly shouldering the weight of a new kind of pressure: that of the definitive favorite.

The Illusion of Momentum & The Reality of Resources

Barcelona’s current form is undeniable. Nine consecutive wins, a four-point league lead, and a 5-0 demolition of Athletic Club paint a picture of a machine hitting its stride. Hansi Flick’s critique of performances, even in victory, reveals a relentless standard. But the true foundation of their favoritism lies not in results, but in restoration.

Key players have returned like cavalry. Pedri’s re-introduction has brought back the midfield control that defines Barça at their best. Raphinha, with his explosive directness and two goals in the semi-final, has reignited a frontline that sometimes sputtered. In goal, Joan García has been a revelation, providing security with spectacular saves. Crucially, Barça approaches this final with perhaps their healthiest squad in months. Only the long-term absentees are missing. This isn’t just a team in form; it’s a squad nearing its full, terrifying potential.

Contrast this with the patchwork reality at Madrid. Their nervy 2-1 win over Atlético was a triumph of grit over coherence. A defense that finished the match with a midfielders-and-full-backs backline is in crisis. With Rüdiger likely out, Militão long-term, and questions over others, Alonso faces a tactical nightmare. Does he deploy the steady but out-of-position Álvaro Carreras, or pull the world-class Aurélien Tchouaméni from his pivotal midfield role, thereby weakening another area? This structural vulnerability is why Thibaut Courtois may need to be Madrid’s most decisive player. His finals pedigree is unparalleled, but asking him to repeatedly save a makeshift defense from Yamal, Raphinha, and company is a monumental task.

The Mbappé Variable: Savior or Smokescreen?

Alonso’s casual confirmation that Kylian Mbappé travels and “could play” is the ultimate wild card. His mere presence changes Madrid’s gravitational pull. With 29 goals this season, he is their singular, game-breaking force. His record of six goals in five Clásicos, including the opener in last year’s final, proves he needs no settling in against this rival.

Yet, Mbappé’s return is a double-edged sword. While it offers a lethal outlet, it doesn’t solve the systemic issues that have plagued Madrid—the periods of disjointed play, the defensive instability. His inclusion might paper over cracks, or it might expose them further if the team cannot adequately support him or shield his back. His fitness level, after a knee sprain, remains the squad’s biggest mystery.

Flick’s Fortune: A Tactical Kaleidoscope

Perhaps Barcelona’s greatest advantage lies in Flick’s embarrassment de riches in attack. For the first time this season, he faces selection headaches born from quality, not necessity. Lamine Yamal (19 goal contributions) is expected back. Does Ferran Torres’ sharp movement or Robert Lewandowski’s big-game pedigree win the #9 role? Does the incisive Fermín López or the creative Dani Olmo start as the #10? Even Marcus Rashford, a game-changer, might begin on the bench.

This wealth allows Flick to tailor his approach and, crucially, hold back transformative substitutes. He can keep Alonso guessing until the last moment and adapt in-game with a luxury of options Madrid currently cannot match.

The Stakes: More Than a “Fourth Trophy”

For Alonso, this is existential. Madrid managers are judged on trophies and Clásicos. Last year’s 5-2 collapse in this final marked the end for Ancelotti. A similar, visibly overrun performance—a demonstration of a gap rather than a close defeat—could be a point of no return. He has stabilized the ship, but a stormy night in Jeddah could capsize it for good.

For Barcelona, the stakes are about affirmation and trajectory. Winning a fourth consecutive Clásico would cement a profound psychological hold. It would validate their improved depth and prove their recent league surge is no fluke. As the last four Supercopa winners have gone on to claim LaLiga, it could be the springboard to a historic double.

The Verdict: The data, the squad health, the defensive stability, and the tactical flexibility all point in one direction. Barcelona are the favorites. But this status brings its own burden. Madrid, wounded and wired with the Mbappé variable, are at their most dangerous in this underdog state. This final, therefore, is not just a battle for a trophy. It’s a test of Barcelona’s ability to shoulder expectation and crush a resilient rival, and of Madrid’s capacity to defy logic, their own frailties, and the growing force of Flick’s Barcelona.

Kylian Mbappé is back in the Madrid squad. What does his return change?